the inflation era: winners and losers

I definitely lost

Like many Americans, I eat my $1.50 hot dog while strolling the aisles of a mega-warehouse to make my mega-purchases. I am careful not to elbow the FatFIRE thirty-somethings buying dry oats for their next ultramarathon and to leave alone the horde-ish packs of twenty-something roommates debating which vodka to buy (These are two of the groups most sensitive to inflation). I look at the prices and delight myself in the money I’m saving as I toss another box of frozen pizzas into the cart.

My spending is largely planned and rationalized. For an event like the Fourth of July, I know where to shop and for what. I know which beers to buy and in what quantity. I know not to buy the pre-mixed margarita. But this display of agency somewhat neglects our economic reality; in recent years, the cost of living feels like it has risen faster than wages, and no amount of thriftiness can really reconcile that. 

Where are we?

In recent years, the Farm Bureau (a major food lobbying group) releases its estimation of the annual cost of a Fourth of July BBQ (essentially an indexed basket of goods for lovers of pork chops and potato salad), and I watch it get misinterpreted online. In June 2021, the Farm Bureau cited a decrease in the cost of a barbecue compared with 2020. This was tweeted by the White House and promptly torn apart. In June 2022, the Farm Bureau reported a 17% increase in price over 2021, but in June 2023, the Farm Bureau reported a decrease of 3%, and I watched Twitter accounts (which I will not link) celebrate the end of inflation. I’ve said this before, but distinguishing between the problem of increasing inflation and the problem of higher-than-affordable prices can be two different issues, although they are often conflated in the media as one.

Almost anyone can tell you the cost of living has increased between the onset of the pandemic and today. Implying anything else is, as my younger colleagues would say, legit gaslighting, or at least missing the point. Now, in recent months, headline after headline proclaims “inflation has cooled.” But does that mean we are out of the water?

This chart depicts the change in price of staple goods for residents of U.S. cities. Does that look like steady 2% year-over-year increases (the Fed’s goal inflation rate) to you?

Thanks to generous donations made by my friends at OPEC (my influencer package is in the mail), I can help you understand the ongoing impact of inflation by boiling it down to its rawest form: winners and losers.

Who’s winning?

Greedy companies 

There’s lots of debate over how much companies succeeded in milking the concept of inflation to charge more and generate higher profits. It’s hard to imagine that a profit-maximizing actor would do such a thing. 

Landlords

Rent went up, homes mostly stay the same.

From 2020-2023, CPI’s city rent index grew at a compound annual growth rate of 4.4%. Did your salary grow at the same pace?

A few salary earners + job hoppers

If you were the guy who job hopped enough to triple your salary and become a tech PM making $350k (which may have been somewhat justified by the pandemic’s low interest rates + rising cost of living), congratulations – the Tesla dealership is really going to enjoy your business.

Annoyingly frugal people

The person who say things like “Oh I would never buy something so frivolous as chocolate milk” are probably winners in a world of more expensive goods, but clearly at some cost to themselves.

Public transportation riders

Consistent riders of public transit don’t have to worry about increase costs of gas or car maintenance, as fares have largely stayed the same (although the rising cost of living may reduce transit riders’ willingness to make less essential trips).

Op-ed columnists

Paul Krugman should thank the Fed for endless material. Elsewhere online, I’ve never seen more opinions from more people who probably don’t know the cost of a banana.

The Fed’s Press Team

Can you imagine what it must feel like to be a star?

Some debtors

In theory, paying back debt just got a little easier, as debt principal doesn’t rise with inflation but wages should.

Rich moms justifying their spending patterns

“Yes, Mark. I spent that $1,000 on groceries.”

Who’s losing?

The Average Joe

Have a job that hasn’t raised wages in a decade AND you like to eat meals three times a day? Good luck out there! It’s even worse if you’re below average income.

Foodies

I hear that even Whole Foods shoppers are cutting back on their foie gras and oysters.

People who wanted to buy a house

While home prices are heading down from their pandemic highs, the market still isn’t in a great place. That midcentury bungalow isn’t getting any younger while you wait for interest rates to come back down.

Europeans

Inflation in the Eurozone has been particularly high, with wages only now starting to rise in tandem. The Italians facing a pasta crisis and the European Central Bank is listening.

Environmentalists on their way to climate conferences

The cost of private jet fuel went way up, putting them in a tough spot.

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Living in San Francisco, home of the $30 “cheap dinner,” I’ve found it easy to lose sight of the idea that life should feel affordable. It’s good to remind yourself that a better world is possible, and this period may be over soon. We’re all facing this together, so you might as well get the nice mac n’ cheese for the barbecue next Tuesday.

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